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The Art and Science of Forecasting: Prediction Methods for Time Series, Predictive Analytics, Probability, AI, Machine Learning, and Making Better Decisions in the Age of AI

The Art and Science of Forecasting: Prediction Methods for Time Series, Predictive Analytics, Probability, AI, Machine Learning, and Making Better Decisions in the Age of AI

Kindle Edition or EPUB + Converted PDF نویسندگان: Jason Karpeles

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فرمت: Kindle Edition or EPUB + Converted PDF تاریخ انتشار نسخه الکترونیکی : June 17, 2026 لینک: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0H5QXVTH7

توضیحات

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF FORECASTINGA Complete Guide to Prediction Methods, AI, Judgment, and Decision-Makingby Jason KarpelesEveryone predicts the future. Almost no one is taught how.Every plan you make, every hire, every investment, every "this should take about three months" is a forecast. Most of them are wrong in ways you never see coming. Yet the methods that actually work — the ones quietly running trading desks, Walmart's shelves, election models, and the new wave of AI — have stayed locked inside universities and research labs.Until now.In The Art and Science of Forecasting, data scientist Jason Karpeles — once ranked 5th in the world on Kaggle and the builder of forecasting systems used by Fortune 500 brands, turns thirty years on the front lines (and four thousand years of history) into one riveting, genuinely useful book. It reads like a thriller and works like a toolkit.You'll stand beside the meteorologist whose forecast launched D-Day on a single weather window. Watch a London shopkeeper invent statistics from the city's death records. See why a county-fair crowd guessed an ox's weight to within nine pounds — and why, again and again, the simple methods beat the sophisticated ones the experts spent careers building. Then you'll get the part no one else is explaining clearly: how today's AI and foundation models really forecast, and the one thing they cannot do without you.Inside, you'll learn how to:Tell a forecast worth betting on from a confident guesslearn aboutvproven methods: diffusion curves, trial-and-repeat, marketing-mix models, Monte Carlo, Bayesian updatingPut an honest number on uncertainty, and communicate it so people actually actDirect AI to produce forecasts that are accurate, not merely plausibleSpot the seven quiet ways almost every forecast fails, before it costs youApply the outside view to your own decisions: the project, the launch, the career move, the life From Frank Bass and the diffusion curve that predicted the iPhone, to Tetlock's superforecasters, to the deep-learning models reshaping the field right now, this is the complete, human story of prediction, told through the people who got it wrong, got it right, and figured out the difference.Whether you run a business, manage a portfolio, lead a team, or simply want to think more clearly about what comes next, this is your field guide to seeing the future a little more honestly, and being right far more often than not.The future arrives whether you're ready or not. This book is how you get ready.Scroll up, click Buy Now, and start forecasting like the best in the world.Written by a career predictive-modeling expertJason Karpeles is a data scientist and predictive-analytics innovator with 30 years of experience in forecasting, economics, statistics, and machine learning. He reached No. 5 worldwide on Kaggle, earned 14 medals, and achieved 50 top-three finishes. His work includes industry-first forecasting models, an automobile-sales simulator, and an AI method that cut research sample requirements by two-thirds while improving accuracy. In 2026, he won Penn State’s NSF-supported data harmonization competition, which attracted over 5,000 submissions. He holds an MA in Economics from NYU, an MBA from Duke, and a BA in Economics from UC Davis.

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